What has driven the growth of Brazil´s residential electricity consumption during the last 19 years? An index decomposition analysis

Abrahão, Karla Cristina de Freitas Jorge; Souza, Roberta Vieira Gonçalves de

doi:10.1590/s1678-86212021000200513

Karla Cristina de Freitas Jorge Abrahão

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG - Brasil

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9890-9033

Roberta Vieira Gonçalves de Souza

Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte - MG - Brasil

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0036-961X

Karla Cristina de Freitas Jorge Abrahão | Programa de Pós-graduação em Ambiente Construído e Patrimônio Sustentável, Escola de Arquitetura | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais | Rua Paraíba, 697, Savassi | Belo Horizonte - MG - Brasil | CEP 30130-141 | Tel.: (31) 3409-8801 | E-mail: kjabrahao@hotmail.com

Roberta Vieira Gonçalves de Souza | Escola de Arquitetura | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais | Tel.: (31) 3409-8825 | E-mail: roberta@arq.ufmg.br

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Table 1
Summarized information of studies in the context of the Brazilian residential electricity consumption

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Table 2
Main methods of Index Decomposition Analysis and characteristics

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Figure 1
Minimumwage (R$), Averageelectricitytariff (R$/MWh), GDP (R$ 1,000,000): Brazil, 2000-2018

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Figure 2
Electricity consumption (GWh), households (1,000 units), population (1,000 units), GDP (R$ 1,000,000) and electricity tariff (R$/GWh) - 2000-2018 by region

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Figure 3
Average number of households by income range in minimum wage by region: year 2018 (%)

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Figure 4
Average estimative of electricity consumption per household by income range in minimum wage by region: year 2018 (%)

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Figure 5
Average estimative of population by age groups by region: year of 2018 (%)

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Figure 6
Average estimative of electricity consumption by population age groups by region: year of 2018 (%)

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Figure 8
Electricity decomposition of the Northeast region

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Figure 9
Electricity decomposition of the Midwest region

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Figure 11
Electricity decomposition of the South region

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Figure 12
Decomposition for Model 1 of the activity effect (H) by household income range: regions

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Figure 13
Decomposition for Model 1 of the activity effect (H) by household location: regions

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Figure 14
Decomposition for Model 2 of the activity effect (P) by age groups: regions

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Table 3
Equivalence between the groups of households disaggregated by income range (based on minimum wage ranges) and equivalent value of the average income (R$)

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Table 4
Equivalence between population age groups determined in this study and the age groups of PPH 2019 survey

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Table 5
Collected and treated data, organized by regions from the years of 2000 and 2018: Residential electricity consumption (MWh), Households, Population, Tariff (R$), GDP (R$ 1,000.00), Minimum wage (R$)

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Table 6
Effects and variables of the decomposition identity models

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Table 7
Summary statistics (Observations=1406)

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Table 8
Exceptions of strong and positive Pearson correlations between electricity consumption and variables: regions, period of 2000-2018

Eq. 1

Eq. 2

Eq. 3

Eq.

Eq. 5

Eq. 6

Eq. 7

Eq. 8

Eq. 9

Household group by minimum wage range of this study	Income classes of households from PPH 2019	Equivalent value of average income according to ABEP (2020)
	A1	R$ 23,345.11
H5+MW	B1	R$ 10,386.52
	B2	R$ 5,363.19
H2-5MW	C1 C2	R$ 2,965.69 R$ 1,691.44
H0-2MW	D-E	< R$ 708.19

Population age groups determined in this study	Population age groups determined in the PPH 2019 survey
P0-14	0 - 9 and 10 - 17
P15-34 and P35-59	18 - 64
P60+	> 65

Data	Notation	North	Northeast	Midwest	Southeast	South
Electricityconsumption (MWh)^{a, 1}	C	3 896 000	12 443 000	6 040 000	48 157 000	13 077 000
Total households^{b, 1}	H	-	10 256 563	3 094 495	20 148 622	7 030 610
Urbanhouseholds^{b, 1}	Hu	2 003 415	7 918 335	2 688 662	18 581 990	5 865 192
Rural households^{b, 1}	Hr	-	2 338 228	405 833	1 566 632	1 165 418
Households with income up to 2 MW^{b, 2}	H0-2MW	621 390	4 867 132	826 052	3 850 752	1 564 534
Households with income of 2 to 5 MW^b,2	H2-5MW	758 848	3 402 155	1 131 560	6 792 867	2 592 632
Households with income upper than 5 MW^{b, 2}	H5+MW	623 177	1 987 276	1 136 884	9 368 109	2 873 444
Total population^c	P	13 270 653	48 946 039	11 871 208	73 974 228	25 386 218
Population group of age 0 to 14^c	P0-14	5 012 846	16 400 224	3 594 321	20 044 151	7 055 522
Population group of age 15 to 34^c	P15-34	4 913 889	17 675 216	4 531 448	26 438 288	8 790 149
Population group of age 35 to 59^c	P35-59	2 653 663	10 942 683	2 987 861	20 884 889	7 287 465
Population group of age 60 and above^c	P60+	690 255	3 927 916	757 578	6 606 900	2 253 082
Tariff (R$/MWh)^d	Tar	155.67	148.04	155.63	162.86	156.95
Gross Domestic Product (R$1 000)^e	GDP	50 650 000	144 135 000	76 542 000	636 394 000	193 534 000
Minimum wage (R$/monthly)^f	MW	151.00	151.00	151.00	151.00	151.00
Electricity consumption (MWh)^a,1	C	9 384 002	27 650 243	11 669 559	65 493 135	21 824 589
Total households^g	Ht	-	19 744 372	5 612 972	31 005 202	10 730 897
Urbanhouseholds^g	Hu	6 094 592	14 159 321	5 009 207	28 896 142	9 281 332
Rural households^g	Hr	-	5 585 051	603 765	2 109 060	1 449 565
Households with income up to 2 MW^g	H0-2MW	3 484 533	11 951 222	1 854 480	10 382 131	2 909 209
Households with income of 2 to 5 MW^g	H2-5MW	1 873 343	5 918 907	2 229 319	12 709 034	4 689 859
Households with income upper than 5 MW^g	H5+MW	736 716	1 874 243	1 529 173	7 914 037	3 131 829
Total population^c	P	18 158 149	57 576 309	16 086 896	87 521 700	29 843 748
Population group of age 0 to 14^c	P0-14	5 066 402	13 998 890	3 513 796	17 136 679	5 802 037
Population group of age 15 to 34^c	P15-34	6 607 771	19 465 389	5 508 586	27 488 631	9 404 802
Population group of age 35 to 59^c	P35-59	5 064 075	17 715 640	5 306 244	29 978 730	10 094 967
Population group of age 60 and above^c	P60+	1 419 901	6 396 390	1 758 270	12 917 660	4 541 942
Tariff (R$/MWh)^{d, 2}	Tar'	186.07	160.94	173.46	169.94	164.11
Gross Domestic Product (R$1 000)^{e, 3}	GDP'	123 940 392	326 752 153	223 092 838	1 198 842 428	380 835 245
Minimum wage (R$ /monthly)^{f, 2}	MW'	314.87	314.87	314.87	314.87	314.87

Source: prepared by the authors from (a) EPE (EMPRESA…, 2019bEMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA. Mercado Mensal para download: consumo mensal de energia elétrica por classe, Brasil e regiões. Available at: http://www.epe.gov.br/pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/consumo-de-energia-eletrica. Access in: 15 dec. 2019b.
http://www.epe.gov.br/pt/publicacoes-dad... ); (b) IBGE (INSTITUTO…, 2020cINSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD - 1999: grandes regiões. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/habitacao/9127-pesquisa-nacional-por-amostra-de-domicilios.html?=&t=downloads. Access in: 15 jan. 2020c.
https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/soc... , 2020dINSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD - 2001: grandes regiões. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/habitacao/9127-pesquisa-nacional-por-amostra-de-domicilios.html?=&t=downloads. Access in: 15 jan. 2020d.
https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/soc... ); (c) IBGE (INSTITUTO…, 2020bINSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Projeções da População por sexo e idade - Brasil: 2000-2060 e Unidades da Federação - 2000-2030. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/populacao/9109-projecao-da-populacao.html?edicao=9116&t=resultados. Access in:15 jan. 2020b.
https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/soc... ); (d) BRAZIL (2005BRAZIL. Câmara dos Deputados. Consultoria Legislativa, Brasília, DF, 2005. Francisco José Rocha de Sousa. A evolução das tarifas de energia elétrica e do salário mínimo. Available at: Available at: http://www2.camara.leg.br/a-camara/documentos-e-pesquisa/estudos-e-notas-tecnicas/areas-da-conle/tema16/2005_14301.pdf . Access in: 15 Jul. 2017.
http://www2.camara.leg.br/a-camara/docum... ), ANEEL (AGÊNCIA…, 2020bAGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA. Tarifa média (R$/MWh) por classes de consumo e por regiões geográficas do Brasil 2003-2020. Available at: http://relatorios.aneel.gov.br/_layouts/xlviewer.aspx?id=/RelatoriosSAS/RelSampRegCC.xlsx&Source=http://relatorios.aneel.gov.br/RelatoriosSAS/Forms/AllItems.aspx&DefaultItemOpen=1. Access in: 15 apr. 2020b.
http://relatorios.aneel.gov.br/_layouts/... ); (e) IBGE (INSTITUTO…, 2020aINSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Sistema de contas nacionais trimestrais: downloads: Produto Interno Bruto (valores correntes) - Brasil, grandes regiões. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/contas-nacionais/9054-contas-regionais-do-brasil.html?=&t=downloads. Access in: 15 oct. 2020a.
https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/eco... ); (f) Ipeadata (2020IPEADATA. Salário mínimo mensal vigente: 1940-2019. Available at: http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/ExibeSerie.aspx?stub=1&serid1739471028=1739471028. Access in: 15 jan. 2020.
http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/ExibeSerie.as... ); and (g) IBGE (INSTITUTO…, 2020eINSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD: downloads - grandes regiões. Available at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/trabalho/17270-pnad-continua.html?=&t=downloads. Access in: 15 jan. 2020e.
https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/soc... ).
Note: (1) MWh expresses the unit of electricity consumption by megawatt-hour; (2) Household data from the year 2000 were estimated from the average between the data of years 1999 and 2001; (3) Tariff data refers to regional average annual value per consumption unit of megawatt-hour, and minimum wage data refers to national monthly wage value; (4) The data are given in real values deflated by the IPCA, according to the procedures, considering the year 2000 as the base year.

Effect	Notation	Variable / Indicator	Notation
Activity	A	Households	H
Structure	S	Population per household	P/H
Quality of life and purchase power	Q	GDP per capita	GDP/P
Intensity	I	Consumption per GPD	C/GDP
Activity	A	Population	P
Structure	S	GDP per capita	GDP/P
Quality of life and purchase power	Q	Households per GDP	H/GDP
Intensity	I	Consumption per household	C/H
Activity	A	Tariff	Tar
Structure	S	Minimumwage per tariff	MW/Tar
Quality of life and purchase power	Q	GDP per minimumwage	GDP/MW
Intensity	I	Consumption per GDP	C/GDP

Region									Statistics
	C	H	H0-2 MW	H2-5 MW	H5+ MW	Hu	Hr	P	P0-14	P15-34	P35-59	P60+	GDP	Tar	MW
μ	8.7	-	7.4	7.2	6.5	8.2	-	9.7	8.6	8.7	8.2	6.9	12.0	12.6	5.5
σ	0.4	-	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.3	-	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.7	0.3	0.2
v	0.3	-	-0.7	-1.1	-0.4	-0.5	-	-0.3	-0.7	-0.5	-0.1	0.2	-0.4	-0.1	-0.6
k	-1.5	-	-0.4	0.0	-0.6	-0.6	-	-1.1	-0.7	-1.0	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-0.1	-1.2
μ	9.8	9.6	9.0	8.4	7.5	9.3	8.1	10.9	9.6	9.9	9.5	8.5	13.0	12.5	5.5
σ	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.2
v	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3	0.0	-0.3	-0.7	-1.3	0.0	0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.6
k	-1.6	-1.2	-0.8	-1.5	0.6	-1.1	-1.1	-1.1	-0.6	0.6	-1.1	-1.2	-1.3	-0.1	-1.2
μ	9.0	8.4	7.2	7.4	7.1	8.2	6.2	9.5	8.2	8.5	8.3	7.0	12.6	12.6	5.5
σ	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.2
v	0.1	-0.2	-0.8	-0.4	0.3	-0.2	-0.4	-0.2	-0.9	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	-0.5	-0.2	-0.6
k	-1.5	-1.2	0.1	-1.3	-1.6	-1.2	-0.6	-1.2	0.2	-1.1	-1.2	-1.2	-0.8	0.1	-1.2
μ	10.9	10.2	8.8	9.2	9.0	10.1	7.5	11.3	9.8	10.2	10.1	9.1	14.4	12.6	5.5
σ	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.2
v	-0.3	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	1.2	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.7	-1.1	-0.3	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	-0.6
k	-1.5	-1.0	-0.1	-0.6	0.9	-1.0	-0.5	-1.1	-0.9	0.3	-1.1	-1.2	-1.2	0.5	-1.2
μ	9.7	9.1	7.7	8.2	8.0	8.9	7.2	10.2	8.8	9.1	9.1	8.1	13.2	12.6	5.5
σ	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.2
v	0.1	-0.3	-0.5	-0.6	0.6	-0.2	-2.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.6	-0.4	0.1	-0.3	0.0	-0.6
k	-1.7	-0.9	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-1.0	4.6	-1.1	-1.3	-1.1	-0.9	-1.3	-1.2	0.2	-1.2

	North			Northeast			Midwest
Variables	C	Tar	MW	C	Tar	SM	C	Tar	SM
H5+MW	0.306	0.220**	0.466**	0.458**	0.066	0.306
P0-14	0.077	0.239**	0.403***	-0.949*	-0.917*	-0.901*	-0.624*	-0.453***	-0.386
	Southeast			South
Variables	C	Tar	SM	C	Tar	SM
H5+MW	-0.518**	-0.797*	-0.725*	-0.985*	0.604*	0.566**
P0-14	-0.906*	-0.845*	-0.888*		-0.882*	-0.940*

E = \sum_{\begin{matrix} i \end{matrix}} E_{i} = \sum_{\begin{matrix} i \end{matrix}} {Q ∙ \frac{Q_{i}}{Q} ∙ \frac{E_{i}}{Q_{i}} = \sum_{\begin{matrix} i \end{matrix}} Q ∙ S_{i} {∙ I}_{i}}_{}

C_{ji} = \sum_{\begin{matrix}  \end{matrix}} {A_{ij} ∙ \frac{S_{ji}}{A_{ji}} ∙ \frac{Q_{ji}}{S_{ji}} ∙ \frac{C_{ji}}{Q_{ji}} = \sum_{\begin{matrix}  \end{matrix}} A ∙ S ∙ Q ∙ I}_{}

∆ D_{jact} = \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln (\frac{A_{j}^{T}}{A_{j}^{0}})

∆ D_{jstr} = \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln (\frac{S_{j}^{T}}{S_{j}^{0}})

∆ D_{jqual} = \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln (\frac{Q_{j}^{T}}{Q_{j}^{0}})

∆ D_{jint} = \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln \sum {\frac{C_{j}^{T}_C_{j}^{0}}{\ln C_{j}^{T} - \ln C_{j}^{0}}}_{} ∙ \ln (\frac{I_{j}^{T}}{I_{j}^{0}})

[1] Karla Cristina de Freitas Jorge Abrahão | Programa de Pós-graduação em Ambiente Construído e Patrimônio Sustentável, Escola de Arquitetura | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais | Rua Paraíba, 697, Savassi | Belo Horizonte - MG - Brasil | CEP 30130-141 | Tel.: (31) 3409-8801 | E-mail: kjabrahao@hotmail.com

Brasil

Brasil

What has driven the growth of Brazil´s residential electricity consumption during the last 19 years? An index decomposition analysis

O que impulsionou o crescimento do consumo residencial de energia elétrica do Brasil nos últimos 19 anos? Uma análise de decomposição de índice

Abstract