The present study aims at evaluating the modified Bartlett-Lewis model with six parameters as well as its application to estimate extreme events. Pluviographical data from the period of October 1980 to December 2007 obtained from the meteorological station of Epagri in Urussanga - SC, Brazil (latitude 28º 31' S and longitude 48º 19' W) were used in the study. The monthly parameters of the model were adjusted for precipitations occurring in intervals of 1 hour, 30 min, 15 min, 10 min, and 5 min. For each studied duration, 100-year time data series were simulated. Results show that: through the parameters adjustment of the modified Bartlett-Lewis model it is possible to simulate rainfall events preserving precipitation statistical properties in several temporal aggregation levels; the 1 hour duration simulated precipitation series showed that the annual maximum series of the simulated series kept the observed series characteristics; the annual maximum series of daily precipitation obtained from hourly precipitation aggregation also presented similar statistics to the observed in the historical series. Finally, the simulated series for inferior duration underestimated more than 23% the observed values, showing that the model did not prove valuable for this duration range.
probability; stochastic models; intense rains
