Broiler production productive losses due to weather with daily high temperature are potentially of great direct and indirect productive losses. This research aimed to develop a climatologic profile of counties of the State of São Paulo, under the conditions that involved risk of losses in broiler production. A set of historical data given by the CEPAGRI-UNICAMP were adapted to the statistical analysis, and furthermore the descriptive and exploratory analysis were performed with the temperatures. Daily temperature data were categorized in binary form to estimate the conditional probabilities (risk) through the relative frequencies, obtained from tables of contingency. Using the software Minitab 15® both descriptive and risk analysis were performed, and at last a connection evaluation. These researches showed that the counties from the West region of the state of São Paulo are the most susceptible to present loss in poultry production due to ambient temperatures. For these counties it is recommended high concern from the producer with the excess of heat inside the houses in the farms. It was also found that mean and median values of minimum temperature are good predictors of risk due to the high association between risk and these variables.
animal welfare; extreme temperatures; risk
