The objective of this study was to simulate leaf development of cultivated rice genotypes and weedy red rice biotypes in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. A leaf appearance (LAR) model adapted for rice was used to simulate the accumulated leaf number, represented by the Haun Stage, from crop emergence to flag leaf appearance (EM-FL). Three cultivated rice genotypes and two weedy red rice biotypes in six emergence dates were used. The LAR model was run for each emergence date using 100 years of synthetic daily weather data and six climate scenarios, including current, +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5 ºC increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum temperature. The increase in air temperature scenarios decreased the duration of the EM-FL phase in the earlier emergence dates (08/20, 09/20, 10/20) whereas in mid (11/20) and late emergence dates (12/20 and 01/20) the longest EM-FL phase was in the symmetric +5 ºC scenario and the shortest duration was in the asymmetric +3 and +4 ºC scenarios. The timing of the onset of flooding irrigation and nitrogen dressing may be altered if global warming takes place and weedy red rice has a potential to enhance its competitiveness with cultivated rice in future climates.
Oryza sativa; global warming; plant competition; climate change; nitrogen management
