Avaliação do impacto do processo de seleção de diretores em escolas públicas brasileiras

Pereda, Paula; Lucchesi, Andrea; Mendes, Karen; Bresolin, Antonio

doi:10.1590/0103-6351/4242

Paula Pereda

Department of Economics, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6717-9522.

Paula Pereda - pereda@usp.br Department of Economics, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6717-9522.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6717-9522

Andrea Lucchesi

School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0813-245X.

Andrea Lucchesi - andrea.lucchesi@usp.br School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0813-245X.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0813-245X

Karen Mendes

Fundação Itaú Social, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6552-2040.

Karen Mendes - karen.dias.mendes@gmail.com Fundação Itaú Social, São Paulo, SP. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6552-2040.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6552-2040

Antonio Bresolin

Fundação Itaú Social, São Paulo, SP, Brasil. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9063-2380.

Antonio Bresolin - tombresolin@gmail.com Fundação Itaú Social, São Paulo, SP. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9063-2380.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9063-2380

Paula Pereda - pereda@usp.br

Department of Economics, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6717-9522.

Andrea Lucchesi - andrea.lucchesi@usp.br

School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0813-245X.

Karen Mendes - karen.dias.mendes@gmail.com

Fundação Itaú Social, São Paulo, SP.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6552-2040.

Antonio Bresolin - tombresolin@gmail.com

Fundação Itaú Social, São Paulo, SP.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9063-2380.

Performance Indicator	5th grade		% variation (2011/07)	9th grade		% variation (2011/07)
Performance Indicator	2007	2011	(%)	2007	2011	(%)
Score in Portuguese	173.5	189.2	9.1%	228.2	238.8	7.2%
Score in Mathematics	190.6	208.2	9.3%	240	245.7	7.0%
Ideb	4.2	5.0	19.8%	3.5	3.9	15.0%
Dropout Rate	2.8	1.5	-44.8%	7.1	4.5	-32.7%

State	public exam	election	public tender and election	app. by technical staff	political app.	app. by others	others
North region
Rondônia (RO)	2%	3%	3%	33%	21%	25%	7%
Acre (AC)	1%	15%	71%	3%	0%	4%	4%
Amazonas (AM)	32%	1%	3%	36%	6%	16%	6%
Roraima (RR)	5%	10%	5%	34%	15%	23%	4%
Pará (PA)	4%	29%	16%	8%	5%	16%	8%
Amapá (AP)	1%	1%	1%	13%	44%	26%	6%
Tocantins (TO)	8%	1%	1%	12%	47%	21%	8%
Northeast region
Maranhão (MA)	5%	3%	4%	24%	35%	18%	6%
Piauí (PI)	8%	63%	12%	4%	4%	4%	3%
Ceará (CE)	13%	5%	74%	1%	0%	2%	2%
Rio Grande do Norte (RN)	1%	77%	6%	3%	2%	5%	4%
Paraíba (PB)	2%	32%	9%	3%	42%	7%	2%
Pernambuco (PE)	4%	4%	53%	7%	2%	17%	10%
Alagoas (AL)	1%	83%	4%	7%	1%	2%	1%
Sergipe (SE)	0%	0%	0%	5%	77%	15%	1%
Bahia (BA)	3%	14%	41%	7%	17%	11%	3%
Southeast region
Minas Gerais (MG)	2%	17%	64%	3%	0%	7%	3%
Espírito Santo (ES)	34%	12%	9%	21%	4%	8%	6%
Rio de Janeiro (RJ)	9%	29%	20%	7%	2%	22%	8%
São Paulo (SP)	45%	0%	1%	2%	0%	8%	41%
South region
Paraná (PR)	1%	81%	8%	2%	0%	5%	1%
Santa Catarina (SC)	0%	1%	1%	1%	83%	9%	1%
Rio Grande do Sul (RS)	2%	78%	6%	1%	0%	4%	5%
Midwest region
Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)	2%	21%	63%	4%	0%	4%	4%
Mato Grosso (MT)	1%	57%	16%	5%	0%	9%	3%
Goiás (GO)	2%	20%	68%	2%	0%	4%	1%
Distrito Federal (DF)	6%	8%	67%	5%	0%	8%	5%

State	public exam	election	public tender and election	app. by techincal staff	political app.	app. by others	Number of schools 2011	Number of schools 2007
RO	0.00	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	0.06	0.11	271	254
AC	0.00	0.09	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.01	182	132
AM	-0.13	0.00	0.00	0.10	-0.01	0.03	489	431
RR	-0.01	0.09	0.05	-0.10	-0.11	0.07	108	83
PA	-0.02	0.24	0.09	-0.19	-0.03	-0.10	519	474
AP	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.06	-0.08	0.01	171	113
TO	-0.42	0.00	-0.03	0.01	0.34	0.08	365	352
MA	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.04	0.08	-0.01	553	545
PI	0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.07	0.01	380	472
CE	0.02	0.04	-0.07	0.00	0.00	0.02	265	431
RN	0.00	0.14	-0.11	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	442	469
PB	0.00	0.09	-0.01	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	530	583
PE	0.00	-0.01	-0.27	0.05	0.02	0.12	786	820
AL	-0.01	0.09	-0.09	0.01	0.00	0.00	256	265
SE	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	0.04	274	270
BA	-0.04	0.13	0.41	-0.02	-0.37	-0.09	808	1077
MG	0.00	0.01	-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.01	3006	3097
ES	0.31	-0.13	-0.01	0.00	-0.09	-0.05	321	282
RJ	0.08	-0.11	-0.10	0.02	0.00	0.09	937	974
SP	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	4640	4606
PR	0.00	0.02	-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.01	1609	1351
SC	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	880	806
RS	0.01	-0.08	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.03	1530	1650
MS	0.01	-0.61	0.57	0.03	0.00	-0.02	310	316
MT	0.00	-0.03	0.04	0.03	-0.01	0.00	522	452
GO	0.01	-0.64	0.60	0.01	0.00	0.02	849	860
DF	-0.09	0.08	0.63	-0.17	-0.05	-0.34	460	385

Selection process	Principal takes continuing education		Principal promotes continuing teachers' training program		3 or more meetings of school council		Program to reduce the dropout rate		Program to reduce failure rates		Principal develops a support program for students		Info is exchanged with other schools' principals
State schools	2007	2011	2007	2011	2007	2011	2007	2011	2007	2011	2007	2011	2007	2011
public exam	95.2	91.8	62.6	69.2	84.3	83.9	69.2	76.1	85.1	88.3	89.7	94.3	92.9	92.9
election	89.7	90.5	63.9	73.9	85.0	86.8	54.4	56.8	70.9	72	69.6	76.5	93.6	93.4
public tender and election	90.8	89.3	65.3	70.8	82.4	83.8	55.1	63	77.8	83.3	77.1	84.6	95.8	93.4
app. by tech staff	86.6	88.7	57.7	64.9	64.6	67.1	50.8	61.1	71.1	79.2	66.3	79.5	94.0	94.7
political app.	81.6	87.1	49.8	52.6	61.6	66	43.2	51.2	55.9	61.9	47.5	54.8	94.3	94.1
app. by others	86	84.2	54.7	61	70.3	71.1	45.7	55.7	67.2	74.5	66.6	80.1	93.0	94.5

Principal selection methods	How long have you worked as principal in this school?
	<2 years	2-4 years	5-10 years	11-15 years	+15 years	<2 years	2-5 years	5-10 years	10-15 years	+15 years
	2007					2011
public exam	23.3	35.5	30.2	4.7	5.5	26.9	21.9	32.9	11.4	6.5
election	36.3	30.8	24.4	5.5	2.3	25.9	33.8	24.7	9.7	5.0
public tender and election	22.9	30.0	36.0	7.2	3.2	17.8	33.2	26.5	16.2	5.4
appoitment by tech staff	48.1	23.3	18.9	5.3	3.6	46.5	30.2	12.9	5.3	4.6
political appoitment	49.8	20.8	19.7	4.7	3.9	50.1	26.7	15.0	4.3	3.3
appoitment by others	49.0	23.3	17.6	5.1	4.2	47.6	29.5	12.5	5.2	4.3

Region	IDEB score
Region	2007	2011
North	3.6	4.0
Northeast	3.1	3.5
Midwest	4.0	4.6
Southeast	4.1	4.7
South	4.3	4.8

Variables	State Schools		State - 5^th year		State - 9^th year
	POLS	FE	POLS	FE	POLS	FE
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

Public Exam	0.0381^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0270	-0.0489^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.00563	0.149^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0198
Public Exam	(0.0124)	(0.0222)	(0.0172)	(0.0309)	(0.0166)	(0.0289)
Election	*-0.0203^ * p<0.1**	-0.0722^* ***** p<0.01,	0.00288	*-0.0586^ * p<0.1**	*-0.0233^ * p<0.1**	*-0.0580^ * p<0.1**
Election	(0.0106)	(0.0234)	(0.0150)	(0.0335)	(0.0139)	(0.0300)
Public Tender and Election	0.150^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0617^* ***** p<0.01,	0.190^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0241	0.141^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0676^ p<0.05,
Public Tender and Election	(0.0112)	(0.0228)	(0.0156)	(0.0321)	(0.0147)	(0.0296)
Appoitment by Technical Staff	0.00197	-0.0714^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0199	*-0.0627^ * p<0.1**	0.0529^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0458
Appoitment by Technical Staff	(0.0150)	(0.0243)	(0.0208)	(0.0327)	(0.0200)	(0.0323)
Appoitment by others	0.0273^ p<0.05,	-0.0259	0.00655	-0.0237	0.0753^* ***** p<0.01,	0.00586
Appoitment by others	(0.0131)	(0.0214)	(0.0182)	(0.0290)	(0.0173)	(0.0284)
Year Dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Student Controls^[1] [1] Students per class, students TDI, percentage of women, percentage of black, percentage of students who own computer and internet, live with their mother and/or father, parents' educational level, encouragement from the parents, percentage of students who work, percentage of students who started studying at preschool (2-6 yr olds), students' absenteeism.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Schools Controls ^[2] [2] Condition of classrooms and restrooms, safety conditions of school, inflow and outflow of students, signs of deliberate damage at school, existence of a library in the school, logarithm of the total employees, surveillance service in the school and time frame of classes (full-time, part-time and morning or evening classes).	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Teacher Controls ^[3] [3] Teachers characteristics: race, education, taken continuing education, teachers' salary, have other jobs (related or not to teaching practice), experience in teaching, experience in the school, excessive absenteeism, whether teachers have been assaulted.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Principal Controls ^[4] [4] Sex, educational level and ethnicity of the principal, principal's experience in that position and in the school, principals motivation of teachers, whether they encourage innovation, continuing education, and students' learning, information on whether the principal helps with the textbook in the school, foreign interference in the management and number of meetings of the teaching advisory and deliberative council (Conselho de Classe) and School Council.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	49,134	49,134	18,319	18,319	30,815	30,815

Variables	State Schools		State - 5^th year		State - 9^th year
	POLS	FE	POLS	FE	POLS	FE
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Public Exam	-0.0284^ p<0.05,	-0.0457^ p<0.05,	-0.0788^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0420	*0.0307^ * p<0.1.**	-0.0245
Public Exam	(0.0137)	(0.0226)	(0.0195)	(0.0346)	(0.0181)	(0.0269)
Election	0.157^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0969^* ***** p<0.01,	0.0831^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.109^* ***** p<0.01,	0.194^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0684^ p<0.05,
Election	(0.0112)	(0.0228)	(0.0160)	(0.0369)	(0.0147)	(0.0269)
Public Tender and Election	0.288^* ***** p<0.01,	*-0.0409^ * p<0.1.**	0.243^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.00317	0.317^* ***** p<0.01,	*-0.0495^ * p<0.1.**
Public Tender and Election	(0.0120)	(0.0222)	(0.0170)	(0.0356)	(0.0156)	(0.0262)
Appoitment by Technical Staff	0.0549^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0601^ p<0.05,	0.0168	-0.0577	0.0989^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0235
Appoitment by Technical Staff	(0.0156)	(0.0241)	(0.0217)	(0.0369)	(0.0207)	(0.0291)
Appoitment by others	0.0878^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0337	0.0469^ p<0.05,	-0.00332	0.129^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.00751
Appoitment by others	(0.0143)	(0.0215)	(0.0196)	(0.0329)	(0.0189)	(0.0260)
Other selection methods	-0.0545^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0337	-0.0967^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0202	-0.00306	-0.0160
Other selection methods	(0.0141)	(0.0230)	(0.0205)	(0.0359)	(0.0184)	(0.0270)
Year Dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Student Controls^[1]	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
School Controls^[2]	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Teacher Controls^[3]	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Principal Controls^[4]	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	49,200	49,200	18,345	18,345	30,855	30,855

Outcome	Case 1: Election to Election + Selection^[3] [3] Covariates: number of employees, teacher absence, library at school, number of school council meetings, year dummy, and school fixed effects.
Outcome	9^th grade^[1] [1] 341 schools in the treatment group and 80 in the control group.	5^th grade^[2] [2] 126 schools in the treatment group and 71 in the control group.
IDEB rate	-0.245***	0.295***
Portuguese score	0.322***	0.639***
Mathematics score	0.377***	0.721***
Dropout rate	0.392***	0.331**

Outcome	Case 2: Selection to Political Appointment^[3] [3] Covariates: number of employees, teacher absence, library at school, number of school council meetings, year dummy, and school fixed effects.
Outcome	9^th grade^[1] [1] 28 schools in the treatment group and 36 in the control group.	5^th grade^[2] [2] 30 schools in the treatment group and 38 in the control group.
IDEB rate	-0.461***	-0.585***
Portuguese score	0.232	0.422***
Mathematics score	0.301	-0.200
Dropout rate	0.468**	0.730***

Outcome	Case 3: Political Appointment to Selection + Election^[3] [3] Covariates: number of employees, teacher absence, library at school, number of school council meetings, year dummy, and school fixed effects.
Outcome	9^th grade^[1] [1] 96 schools in the treatment group and 36 in the control group.	5^th grade^[2] [2] 7 schools in the treatment group and 13 in the control group.
IDEB rate	-0.190	0.395
Portuguese score	-0.238	-0.0262
Mathematics score	-0.115	0.782**
Dropout rate	-0.308	-2.403**

Principal Variables	IDEB	Math	Portuguese	Dropout
	FE	FE	FE	FE
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Female	-0.0106	0.00136	-0.00140	-0.0103
Female	(0.0103)	(0.0105)	(0.0101)	(0.0152)
Teacher Educational Program (High School) - Magistério	0.0652	0.143^* ***** p<0.01,	0.192^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.00305
Teacher Educational Program (High School) - Magistério	(0.0507)	(0.0483)	(0.0480)	(0.0799)
High School	-0.0468	0.0961	0.136^ p<0.05,	-0.108
High School	(0.0567)	(0.0602)	(0.0587)	(0.0871)
Teacher Educational Program (College)	0.000598	0.00976	*0.0626^ * p<0.1**	-0.00871
Teacher Educational Program (College)	(0.0349)	(0.0345)	(0.0336)	(0.0547)
Black	-0.0213	-0.0277	-0.0183	-0.0121
Black	(0.0172)	(0.0170)	(0.0170)	(0.0268)
Works as principal for > 15 years	0.0198	0.0389^ p<0.05,	0.0431^ p<0.05,	-0.0180
Works as principal for > 15 years	(0.0183)	(0.0191)	(0.0184)	(0.0284)
Works in the same school between 2 and 4 years	-0.0138	-0.0170	-0.0138	-0.00622
Works in the same school between 2 and 4 years	(0.0114)	(0.0118)	(0.0113)	(0.0174)
Works in the same school between 5 and 10 years	0.00432	-0.00964	0.00245	0.0219
Works in the same school between 5 and 10 years	(0.0125)	(0.0131)	(0.0125)	(0.0188)
Works in the same school between 11 and 15 years	0.0712^* ***** p<0.01,	0.0600^* ***** p<0.01,	0.0571^* ***** p<0.01,	*0.0547^ * p<0.1**
Works in the same school between 11 and 15 years	(0.0186)	(0.0194)	(0.0187)	(0.0284)
Works in the same school > 15 years	0.0101	-0.0235	-0.0220	0.00990
Works in the same school > 15 years	(0.0246)	(0.0261)	(0.0257)	(0.0394)
Promotes continuing teachers' training programs	0.0299^* ***** p<0.01,	0.0271^* ***** p<0.01,	0.0274^* ***** p<0.01,	*0.0203^ * p<0.1**
Promotes continuing teachers' training programs	(0.00800)	(0.00830)	(0.00806)	(0.0120)
Year dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of Observations	49,134	49,200	49,200	49,123

Variables	Teacher education program (magistério)			Principal n the same school between 11 and 15 years			Princ. promotes continuing educ. programs to the teachers			Principal for more than 15 years
	state schools	5^th year	9^th year	state schools	5^th year	9^th year	state schools	5^th year	9^th year	state schools	5^th year	9^th year
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)
Public Exam	-0.648	-0.829	-0.472	0.497	0.475	0.509	0.545^* ***** p<0.01,	0.649^* ***** p<0.01,	0.491^* ***** p<0.01,	*0.450^ * p<0.1.**	0.343	*0.494^ * p<0.1.**
Public Exam	(0.539)	(0.772)	(0.663)	(0.339)	(0.475)	(0.350)	(0.101)	(0.169)	(0.139)	(0.248)	(0.429)	(0.284)
Election	*-0.529^ * p<0.1.**	-0.627	-0.525	1.366^* ***** p<0.01,	1.451^* ***** p<0.01,	1.348^* ***** p<0.01,	0.637^* ***** p<0.01,	0.592^* ***** p<0.01,	0.650^* ***** p<0.01,	0.216	0.198	0.245
Election	(0.303)	(0.538)	(0.411)	(0.295)	(0.536)	(0.363)	(0.111)	(0.210)	(0.148)	(0.260)	(0.428)	(0.294)
Public Tender and Election	-0.573^ p<0.05,	-0.948	-0.497	1.425^* ***** p<0.01,	1.322^* ***** p<0.01,	1.498^* ***** p<0.01,	0.846^* ***** p<0.01,	0.947^* ***** p<0.01,	0.796^* ***** p<0.01,	0.333	0.477	0.279
Public Tender and Election	(0.264)	(0.635)	(0.319)	(0.317)	(0.483)	(0.337)	(0.0935)	(0.188)	(0.151)	(0.218)	(0.397)	(0.270)
Appoitment by Technical Staff	0.0892	-0.0301	0.0707	0.406	0.530	0.317	0.435^* ***** p<0.01,	0.463^ p<0.05,	0.417^* ***** p<0.01,	-0.0462	0.170	-0.137
Appoitment by Technical Staff	(0.270)	(0.494)	(0.401)	(0.303)	(0.515)	(0.342)	(0.0987)	(0.185)	(0.140)	(0.259)	(0.471)	(0.271)
Appoitment by others	-0.420	-0.596	-0.415	-0.0989	0.118	-0.235	0.124	0.223	0.0668	-0.496^ p<0.05,	-0.336	-0.570^ p<0.05,
Appoitment by others	(0.288)	(0.543)	(0.327)	(0.264)	(0.490)	(0.340)	(0.0919)	(0.142)	(0.141)	(0.209)	(0.376)	(0.283)
Year dummy	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	794	302	492	5,266	1,846	3,420	14,304	4,662	9,642	4,628	1,514	3,114

\begin{matrix} {\hat{τ}}^{DID, PSW} = (\hat{E [y_{{it}_{1}}^{d} | S = 1, P (S | Z)]} - \hat{E [y_{{it}_{1}}^{d} | S = 0, P (S | Z)]}) - \\ - (\hat{E [y_{{it}_{0}}^{d} | S = 1, P (S | Z)]} - \hat{E [y_{{it}_{0}}^{d} | S = 0, P (S | Z)]}) \end{matrix}

[1] Paula Pereda - pereda@usp.br

Department of Economics, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6717-9522.

Brasil

Brasil

Avaliação do impacto do processo de seleção de diretores em escolas públicas brasileiras

Resumo